Monday, June 18, 2007

TBTM20070618


So, a quick summary of what I believe about Peak Oil:

- Peak Oil is a geological phenomenon and, to all intents and purposes, we are at the peak now;
- the implications of the peak are a shift from cheap and easy energy to hard and expensive energy;
- the minimum we can expect is a decade long and very hard economic recession;
- if the absence of enlightened political leadership continues then things will be much worse, especially with regard to international affairs - principally wars and mass migration;
- most of the 'solutions' are already technically possible, no new inventions are needed in order to preserve techonological civilisation;
- however, it is impossible to preserve private commuting in any shape resembling what we have at present, all automobiles will soon become worthless;
- it is fundamentally a question of values, ie how we choose to shape our lives. God is asking us what we want to give priority to, and he is forcing us to choose between alternatives. So far the West is choosing happy motoring over feeding the third world - I don't see anyway to escape that injustice - that is why I believe God's wrath is descending upon us;
- I don't see this as the end of human civilisation (unless we're really stupid) - in thirty years time I believe we will be established in a sustainable, technologically advanced and human-scale civilisation. The only question is how many people get there with us.


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