Thursday, June 14, 2007

Resource constraints will limit global warming

At last some thorough analysis on how Peak Oil links in with global warming - go here for the entry-site (HT Energy Bulletin).

Key argument:
- the IPCC do not take resource constraints into account in their climate models;
- all 40 IPCC scenarios assume that more hydrocarbons will be used than a resource analysis suggest is physically possible;
- a 'producer-limited' analysis suggests that CO2 will peak at 460ppm in 2070;
- the temperature rise is approximately 0.8C by 2100;
- a political 'Super-Kyoto' agreement would reduce that figure by 0.04C;
- it's more important to reduce ultimate (total) hydro-carbon use than to slow it down.

Absolutely fascinating. Lots of implications to ponder. Youtube video of his talk is below (67 minutes)

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