However, none of this is to dispute the gravity of the crisis that is bearing down upon us more and more quickly. One of the heroes of the Peak Oil community, Stuart Staniford, has just broken his purdah, and posted this graph at The Oil Drum:
All of the official pronouncements for future energy supply, over the next thirty years or so, are predicated on there being a) lots of easy oil left to find (see this for a debunking) and b) production from Saudi Arabia doubling. What the graph shows rather strong evidence for is Saudi Arabia's complete incapacity to do any such thing. They have vastly increased the number of wells deployed to drill for oil, and their production of oil is decreasing. Almost certainly, Saudi Arabia has passed peak production; they know it; and they are lying about it for as long as possible, because of the political consequences that will follow.
What I am most convinced of is that we have begun the descent into the great dislocation, that our world is about to be broken apart. I am very pessimistic about the short-to-medium term (ie from now to about 15/20 years hence - all I can see is war, famine, pestilence and disaster) but the longer term I am much more optimistic about. As I have said many times in my talks - the post Peak world will be a very good one, for those who live to see it.
Then the LORD said to me, "Do not pray for the well-being of this people. Although they fast, I will not listen to their cry; though they offer burnt offerings and grain offerings, I will not accept them. Instead, I will destroy them with the sword, famine and plague." But I said, "Ah, Sovereign LORD, the prophets keep telling them, 'You will not see the sword or suffer famine. Indeed, I will give you lasting peace in this place.' "
Then the LORD said to me, "The prophets are prophesying lies in my name. I have not sent them or appointed them or spoken to them. They are prophesying to you false visions, divinations, idolatries and the delusions of their own minds. Therefore, this is what the LORD says about the prophets who are prophesying in my name: I did not send them, yet they are saying, 'No sword or famine will touch this land.' Those same prophets will perish by sword and famine. And the people they are prophesying to will be thrown out into the streets of Jerusalem because of the famine and sword. There will be no one to bury them or their wives, their sons or their daughters. I will pour out on them the calamity they deserve.