Discovered something interesting about Mersea tonight. The tide was up at 7:10pm, covering the Strood - which was extremely bizarre, as it shouldn't have been, according to tide tables etc. But: mild westerly wind (25mph or so) and low pressure (1006) obviously count for more than the tidal movement itself (supposedly only 3.8m - and it covers the Strood from about 4.6m or so). Pressure is much more important than I thought.
Which means that when we get low pressure, strong wind AND an expected high tide - that's when we get 1953. Which is going to come, at some point.