Thursday, July 27, 2006

Pity those who are young at that time

The Oil Drum | A Letter from the TOD Editors Box...: "I'm 24 years old and for as long as I've known what it was I've been concerned about peak oil and about the potential consequences for my country (the U.S.) and the world as a whole. The thing that keeps me up at night the most is the feeling that there is nothing I can do to stop us from sleepwalking over the edge of a cliff. ...My question is what can I, as an individual do to prepare myself to survive peak oil?"

Lots of questions and answers at The Oil Drum.

See in particular the post from Matt Savinar (AlphaMale Prophet of Doom) about a third of the way down, from which I extract this:
If the decline rate is 4%, that halves production in 17.5 years or so. On top of the usual decline rate, I think it reasonable to expect further/additional disruptions due to war/terrorism and weather. (More Katrina-type events) So that bumps it up to 6% let's say, halving the supply in 11.5 years. If the decline rate is 8% (as some have speculated) plus anohter 2-3% due to terrorism/war and weather plus then we're looking at a 50% cut in 7 years.
The 'some have speculated' is Schlumberger.

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