Sunday, January 15, 2006

World War Three, again

Good article by Niall Ferguson here.

Interesting to observe the issue of Iran climbing up the agenda of the news bulletins. It has higher to go yet. The trouble is that the world needs Iran (its oil and gas) more than Iran needs the world, so sanctions - even if they get applied - will be meaningless and cosmetic, further reinforcing Admadinajad's beliefs that the West is craven and that Allah will support him in his actions.

I'm more convinced than ever that the situation is fubar, but I'm a bit more optimistic that it won't lead to WW3, simply because I can see Russia and China benefiting more from sitting on the sidelines (possibly selling arms) while the US (and UK) get bogged down in very serious ground warfare, and while their economies go into meltdown.

So that's the good news....

The more I ponder it, the more I think an attack on Iran will be the same as the Titanic hitting the iceberg. There will be a big jolt, and then things will stabilise, and the powers that be will reassure everyone that it's all OK, nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, the ship of oil consumption begins to sink, and all that has been built on top of it will sink with it.

Ironically, it might make all the Peak Oil worrying completely irrelevant - the West shifts on to non-oil based economies (for global warming concerns as well, for example) - and by the time the oil supply situation has stabilised, we've moved off and away - and nobody cares that the oil supply has passed its peak. Oil will again be cheap, because nobody will want it.

Well, that's me trying to be optimistic!!

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