Tuesday, January 10, 2006

A good analysis of what is going on - and where it's going

This is an excellent article outlining both Russian strategy and Russian/Chinese strengths compared to US weakness in the changing situation.

I can't help thinking of the turn of the 19th/20th centuries, when decades of British advantage in Naval warfare were suddenly rendered irrelevant by the invention of the steel battleship. Something very similar is happening now. The problem is not that the US is a hyperpower, the problem is that the US is fundamentally hugely weaker than it thinks it is. It will therefore over-reach, and cause chaos. It may bounce back in a decade or two (I respect the Dynamic Quality of the US system) but getting there will be hard, and hegemonism is not going to happen.

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